Bull Markets For 2012?

[gimz63251073 0]

2012 has turned out pretty well as yet.

greece forced to stay in EURO. Jim Rogers mentioned that with so many elections in 2012, its hard to go bust. Start worrying in 2013 and panic in 2014.

my own view: stay prepared, mkt can move very fast. Surely there are chances to buy on the cheap.

[bepgof 20]

Thought US's employment now looks +ve and homeloan has increased.

Let's rewind a bit to history:

- Typically nov-dec is the "quite" time in stk mkt - many festive seasons + ppls on holidays.

- Ppls receive "remuneration package" at yr end, meaning mkt being injected with "extra cash".

- "Capricon effort" explain this. Ppls start buying in

- Many Cos financial yr close in March, result release, div declare...ppls "chiong"

- Gov's yearly "budget" play a part too (local effort)

- .......

Let look "far" a bit and ask: Any "good, +ve news" in months to come? Seem none to me. And "potential bad bad news" coming?

- China manufacturing speed down, meaning "spending down" = got "multiplier effects"

- US's debt deficit is a big big big concern to many many countries who are holding their debts. When the "bomb" will ignite? No one can tell, however, when he loses his "influential power on the world stage", his doom day will come.

Looked at Mexico, Argentina govs in 1980s, Russia in 1990s, Greece in 2010...who is next?

[gimz63251073 0]

frankly, towards the end of 2011, most people are pessimistic about the stock market in 2012.

We are nearly at the end of 1st quarter of 2012 and look where the market is?

It just shows that its **** hard to predict the market!

I was looking at Keppel land when it was beaten down to $2 plus, had not bought in becos i thought property might hit a standstill, especially in China. However, within a short time, Keppel land rose to $3 plus! Never easy to make a decision to buy it seems.

[bepgof 20]

http://forum.channelnewsasia.com/showthread.php?59370-Singtel-sack-500-of-its-local-staff-and-dump-them-to-China-firm!

Waves come. HR strategy? Outsourcing? In the process: "one by one" gone.

[Lauer 15]

I tried to find an article that could present & summarize, in a concise way, how sovereign debt financing actually works.

I think the following article should be good enough?

http://modernsurvivalblog.com/the-economy/colossal-government-debt-prepare-for-inflation/

In addition to the sound advice given in its last paragraph 'Prepare', I might add that it is ironically advantageous to carry relatively larger debts such as a new housing loan etc in an inflationary environment.

(Maybe this is the 'reason' that why everyone seems to be zealously buying new launches without fear of the impending implosion of Euro?)

With this done, I would like to wish all a happy renovation & prosperous 2012. To all who celebrate it, a joyous and merry Christmas.

Enjoy!

It is approaching the time of the year to spend some time elsewhere.

I will like to wish all a happy renovation & prosperous 2013. To all who celebrate it, a joyous and merry Christmas.

(Keep a watch over Gold)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T43XdDMTXfI&feature=youtube_gdata_player

Enjoy!

Edited October 7, 2012 by Lauer

[bepgof 20]

Investment is all about risks vs returns.

-Capital

-Knowledge and experience

-Asset allocation concept is important in life (edu, property, car, marriage, children,insurance, cash flows,stock,etc)

-Practise while young, cos higher risk tolerance. Fall, stand up again.

My stands:

- involve in stocl mkt, high liquidity.

- property, takes time, know-how, rules, timing, location, tpt, land lease....less liquid. Borrow while young

- appropriate needs and wants.

- no money has health, got money no health - golden rule.

Wish all a "happy" 2012. Be happy goes "lucky".

[Lauer 15]

It is approaching the time of the year to spend time elsewhere; to watch the autumn sunset, to feel the first snow, to soak in the yearend festivity etc etc.

I wish all a happy renovation & a prosperous 2014. To those who celebrates it, a joyous & merry Christmas.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mDP-ORONs0U&feature=youtube_gdata_player

(We are probably approaching the tail end of asset inflation, of property, stock, bond. So, perhaps a hedge should be considered where one is heavily vested. To the more adventurous, perhaps to start building a put portfolio.)

Enjoy!

[bepgof 20]

(We are probably approaching the tail end of asset inflation, of property, stock, bond. So, perhaps a hedge should be considered where one is heavily vested. To the more adventurous, perhaps to start building a put portfolio.)

Before put, need call in place.

Not inflation. Artificial interest rate manipulation, to be exact.

Tapering of money supply in markets in progress. USA gov 'shutdown' in progress, started yst.

PAP gov foresee, actions took before this. Strinking money supply in car & property markets. More similar actions to come.

Sell, keep money. No holidays.

[spacee 0]

still 2012?

shld create for 2014 market Poll.

>> i vote BIG Bear.

[Lauer 15]

It is again the time of the year to spend time elsewhere, to live differently because life is but a journey.

I wish everyone a happy renovation and properous 2015.

(we could be seeing a greater volatility in the marketplaces from now on for about 9 months, so be nimble while out there.)

后会有期.

Cheers!

[bepgof 20]

Be more specific:

USA/Europe/Japan $ machines still working hard. Currency war, see who depreciate more and faster? Why? Cheaper money meaning?

US$ inches up against majority currencies lately. Time to buy?

1/3 global financial markets started using Chinese RMB to settle trades with HK/China. What implications for RMB?

Once m/cs stop, interest rates up, business activities reduce, stock mkts will down. Bond mkt will up, REITs will up.....

ISIS, national security,energy supply disruption....... increase uncertainties.

[Lauer 15]

Be more specific:

USA/Europe/Japan $ machines still working hard. Currency war, see who depreciate more and faster? Why? Cheaper money meaning?

US$ inches up against majority currencies lately. Time to buy?

1/3 global financial markets started using Chinese RMB to settle trades with HK/China. What implications for RMB?

Once m/cs stop, interest rates up, business activities reduce, stock mkts will down. Bond mkt will up, REITs will up.....

ISIS, national security,energy supply disruption....... increase uncertainties.

A last posting for the year; for your benefit.

If you are a trader of the lower timeframes, then you would know that price moves according to the selling and buying pressure at that moment. Price does react temporarily to major news but it would resume where it wants to go naturally. Most traders don't care about evolving news or developments such as those being wrote above, and therefore are comfortable trading all kind of markets (index, fx, commodity, pm etc).

How do you know where price of an instrument wants to go? Well, the market tells you.

Therefore, a trader would do well when listening to what the market is telling him, and he would do badly fighting with the market, being egoistic and so on. Of course, there are times that a trader would misunderstand what the market is saying or sometime the market is making a false move. However, it is a well known statistic that a trader would make a very comfortable living trading the markets with a success rate of 55%.

In other words, a trader would need to be right slightly more than 50% of the time in term of the price direction to be very successful, provided he has strong money management discipline (basically cutting losses quickly and letting profit runs with trailing stop).

For a strong opinionated person, he should avoid trading and be an investor instead. But even for an investor, he would still need to follow basic trading principle in order to be able to trade around his portfolio in times of market volatility.

If you have the right aptitude, trading is a good skill to acquire. There is no retirement age, and you could trade as long as your mind is up to it. You are your own boss, there is no office hours etc.

Trading is leveraged, so make sure that you have strong money management discipline in pursuing this career.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NadClRkUtzk&feature=youtube_gdata_player

Cheers!

[bepgof 20]

Great men see big pictures. They whack at roots not branches nor leaves of trees.

Archery effect, or linking pin effect. Always, upstream effect downstream.

Financial markets information is basically efficient in this 3rd transformational industrial revolution, of course, insider info always exist.

Also subject to if one pays 'attention' to such info.

No portfolio manager, in fact, can beat market risks, as there are too many costs involved.

Everywhere/doings involve risk.

Risks are returns. Higher risk deserve higher premium return. But......

Interest is the return for defer of consumption, however, there are 'artificial' interest rate controlled by central banks.

Again, political uncertainty, outbreak of war/health/food, energy demand/supply, money supply,interest rates, currency exchange rates...are 'upstream'.